What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin's spot price on 12 August 2026 will determine settlement. The current 0% implied probability suggests the market crowd assigns negligible odds to any single price point hitting on that specific date—a reflection of Bitcoin's historical volatility and the wide range of plausible valuations across a two-year horizon. With settlement occurring roughly 20 months forward, the betting book remains thin, indicating limited capital has flowed into this particular date anchor. Funding availability and on-ramp friction will shape participation: traders depositing via SEPA or Klarna instalment rails face variable settlement times and fee structures that compress expected value on narrow price bands, suppressing depth in low-probability outcomes.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show daily swings of 5–15% during volatile periods, making any fixed-price prediction on a named date inherently sparse in probability mass. August 2024 saw Bitcoin trade between $59,000 and $65,000; extrapolating two years forward with typical annualised volatility of 60–80% yields a distribution so wide that individual price points carry minimal weight. Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendar events—Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data releases, and geopolitical risk events—scheduled near mid-August 2026, as these historically drive sharp intraday moves. Equally, watch for shifts in institutional custody adoption and spot exchange-traded fund flows, which influence sustained price levels. The settlement window's four-hour closure window (04:00 UTC on 13 August) introduces timing risk; traders must account for regional market hours and liquidity concentration across major exchanges when assessing execution feasibility.

Methodology

This page compares What price will Bitcoin hit on August 12? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).