Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| >2M | 99% |
| >4M | 99% |
| >6M | 96% |
| >8M | 95% |
| >10M | 88% |
| >12M | 85% |
| >14M | 82% |
| >16M | 79% |
| >18M | 76% |
| >20M | 68% |
| >25M | 56% |
| >30M | 39% |
| >35M | 32% |
| >40M | 22% |
| >45M | 17% |
| >50M | 11% |
| >60M | 6% |
| >70M | 5% |
| >80M | 4% |
| >90M | 2% |
| >100M | 1% |
Market context
Credible Finance is securing up to $4 million through MetaDAO’s public sale, with institutional soft commits already totalling $2.315 million, leaving just $1.685 million needed to hit the threshold before the August 2026 deadline[1][8]. The market’s 99% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that this gap will close, driven by Credible’s role as a global payment on-ramp handling cards, SEPA, UPI, Pix and 80+ local methods while settling in USDC, USDT or fiat[1].
Comparable on-chain raises for payment infrastructure—such as Hurupay’s uncapped USDC round on MetaDAO—show that once soft commits exceed 50%, final thresholds are typically met with minimal friction, as deposit fees of 0.5–2% and free withdrawals create strong user incentives to lock capital early[7]. MetaDAO itself has raised $9.9 million from Paradigm, Variant and 6MV, proving its marketplace reliably converts institutional interest into committed capital[3][6].
Traders should monitor Credible’s official fundraise page for the “committed” figure hitting the target, as refunds or cancellations post-threshold do not alter resolution[1]. Key catalysts include announcements of new payment rail integrations (e.g. Klarna or expanded SEPA corridors), updates on async KYB coverage in new markets, and any delays in the T+0 settlement pipeline that could affect book depth[1]. A recent X post from MetaDAO confirms soft commits are verifiable and diversified across remittances, creator payments and ecommerce, reinforcing the likelihood of threshold achievement[8][10].
Methodology
This page compares Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
Trade Total commitments for the Credible public sale on Me… on Polymarket Klarna UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →