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Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Fastest route to "Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO": payment methods and processing times across the four comparable platforms.

>2M 99% >4M 99% >6M 96% >8M 95% Volume: $128K Liquidity: $166K Closes: 31 Aug 2026
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Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
99% 1% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
99% 1% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
>2M99%
>4M99%
>6M96%
>8M95%
>10M88%
>12M85%
>14M82%
>16M79%
>18M76%
>20M68%
>25M56%
>30M39%
>35M32%
>40M22%
>45M17%
>50M11%
>60M6%
>70M5%
>80M4%
>90M2%
>100M1%

Market context

Credible Finance is securing up to $4 million through MetaDAO’s public sale, with institutional soft commits already totalling $2.315 million, leaving just $1.685 million needed to hit the threshold before the August 2026 deadline[1][8]. The market’s 99% YES probability reflects the near-certainty that this gap will close, driven by Credible’s role as a global payment on-ramp handling cards, SEPA, UPI, Pix and 80+ local methods while settling in USDC, USDT or fiat[1].

Comparable on-chain raises for payment infrastructure—such as Hurupay’s uncapped USDC round on MetaDAO—show that once soft commits exceed 50%, final thresholds are typically met with minimal friction, as deposit fees of 0.5–2% and free withdrawals create strong user incentives to lock capital early[7]. MetaDAO itself has raised $9.9 million from Paradigm, Variant and 6MV, proving its marketplace reliably converts institutional interest into committed capital[3][6].

Traders should monitor Credible’s official fundraise page for the “committed” figure hitting the target, as refunds or cancellations post-threshold do not alter resolution[1]. Key catalysts include announcements of new payment rail integrations (e.g. Klarna or expanded SEPA corridors), updates on async KYB coverage in new markets, and any delays in the T+0 settlement pipeline that could affect book depth[1]. A recent X post from MetaDAO confirms soft commits are verifiable and diversified across remittances, creator payments and ecommerce, reinforcing the likelihood of threshold achievement[8][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Total commitments for the Credible public sale on MetaDAO with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
Which payment methods are supported?
Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
Can I deposit with a credit card?
Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
How do withdrawals work?
Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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