Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where it faces competition from the broader Responsible Financial Innovation Act draft. This legislative friction directly impacts payment friction for users depositing via Klarna or withdrawing through SEPA and USDC rails, as exchanges hesitate to integrate fiat on-ramps without clear CFTC oversight and custodian registration rules. The current 37% YES probability reflects this uncertainty, mirroring the trajectory of the 2022 FIT21 bill which also cleared the House but required months of Senate negotiation before eventual passage.

Historical precedents suggest that bills advancing with strong House bipartisan backing often face significant Senate delays when competing frameworks emerge, as seen with the GENIUS Act adoption preceding CLARITY’s House passage. The 37% implied probability aligns with similar crypto-structure markets where Senate committee stagnation reduced odds from initial highs above 60% to current levels. Traders should monitor the Senate Banking Committee’s schedule for a hearing on H.R.3633 and any announcements regarding the consolidation of CLARITY provisions into the RFIA discussion draft, as these dependencies determine whether the bill reaches the floor before the December 2026 signing deadline [6].

Recent reporting confirms the bill sits dormant despite House passage, with the Senate Banking Committee prioritising its own RFIA draft instead [6]. Key catalysts include a scheduled committee vote, a joint SEC-CFTC memorandum of understanding announcement, or a White House statement endorsing the dual-regulatory framework. Without a hearing announcement by late 2025, the probability of a 2026 signing diminishes sharply, as the legislative window narrows for both chambers to reconcile differences and secure presidential signature before the settlement cutoff.

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Methodology

This page compares Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).