Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.0M
- 24h volume
- $744K
- Liquidity
- $436K
- Open interest
- $568K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Available prediction outcomes (11)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Bitcoin's noon ET price on 14 May 2026 will be determined by the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at that specific timestamp. The market's 100% implied probability reflects confidence in Bitcoin trading above the specified threshold, though the exact price level remains unspecified in this brief. Settlement depends entirely on Binance's recorded candle data, making execution certainty the primary consideration rather than directional conviction.
Historical precedent suggests that extreme probabilities (90%+) on intraday Bitcoin price levels often reflect either very tight price bands or substantial on-ramp liquidity supporting the asset class. Funding flows through major exchanges—particularly SEPA transfers, Klarna integration, and USDC settlement rails—have materially widened Binance's order book depth since 2024. When deposit friction decreases and withdrawal options expand across European and North American rails, spot book depth typically improves, reducing the volatility that would otherwise create settlement ambiguity around noon ET timestamps.
Traders should monitor Binance's fee structure announcements and any regulatory changes affecting stablecoin on-ramps in the weeks preceding May 2026. Klarna's payment rail stability and SEPA settlement times directly influence whether retail and institutional capital can flow efficiently into spot positions ahead of the resolution window. Additionally, any scheduled maintenance windows on Binance or disruptions to USDC liquidity could affect candle formation at precisely 12:00 ET, creating execution risk despite the high probability assignment.
Wikipedia Context
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BitcoinBitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. Use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009, with the release of its open-source implementation. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender curre
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Bitcoin protocolThe bitcoin protocol is the set of rules that govern the functioning of bitcoin. Its key components and principles are: a peer-to-peer decentralized network with no central oversight; the blockchain technology, a public ledger that records all bitcoin transactions; mining and proof of work, the process to create new bitcoins and verify transactions; and cryp
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Bitcoin in El SalvadorEl Salvador was the first country in the world to use bitcoin as legal tender, after it was adopted as such by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador in 2021. It has been promoted by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who claimed that it would improve the economy by making banking easier for Salvadorans, and that it would encourage foreign investme
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Bitcoin and politics
Bitcoin and politics influence each other in several ways. Governments of several countries use Bitcoin in various capacities, and some politicians use Bitcoin in their electoral programs.
Methodology
This page compares Bitcoin above 2026 on May 14? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. PolyGram additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like PolyGram add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on PolyGram?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and PolyGram converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- PolyGram charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Are payment details protected?
- Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by PolyGram — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). PolyGram retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.
Trade Bitcoin above 2026 on May 14? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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