July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Consumer Price Index for July 2026 will measure the month-on-month change in prices paid by urban consumers for goods and services, seasonally adjusted. The BLS will release this figure on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any YES outcome, suggesting traders expect either a deflationary reading or are awaiting clearer signals before committing capital.

Historical monthly CPI moves have ranged from −0.7% to +0.8% in recent years, with most readings clustering between −0.1% and +0.4%. The period from mid-2023 through early 2025 saw persistent monthly gains of 0.2–0.3%, reflecting sticky goods and services inflation. A 0% reading—neither positive nor negative—occurs roughly once per year and represents genuine price stability rather than deflation. The crowd's current positioning at zero probability suggests either extreme confidence in a positive print or insufficient liquidity depth to support alternative outcomes.

Traders should monitor energy prices and wage growth data through June and early July, as both drive month-to-month CPI volatility. The Producer Price Index, released mid-August, often correlates with consumer inflation trends and may influence post-release trading. Deposit and withdrawal mechanics matter here: traders using SEPA transfers or Klarna payments should account for settlement timing around the 12 August release, as book depth typically expands sharply in the 48 hours following the BLS announcement. Early positioning before the data release faces friction costs; post-release liquidity often improves substantially once the actual figure is known.

Methodology

This page compares July Inflation US - Monthly with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

UK Frequently Asked Questions

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?

Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.

What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?

UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.

How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?

Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).