Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 to the public on 9 June 2026, then suspended US customer access three days later following a government directive. The model remains unavailable to American users as of late June, with no official restoration timeline announced. This market settles affirmatively only if Anthropic restores the model—under its original name or the confirmed alias Claude Mythos—to US customers by 2 July 2026, a window of roughly two weeks from the suspension date.

Historical precedent suggests government-mandated AI model suspensions rarely reverse within such compressed timeframes. When the US restricted access to certain large language models in 2024 and 2025, reinstatement typically required either legislative clarification, formal regulatory exemptions, or protracted negotiation between companies and federal agencies—processes spanning months rather than days. The 0% crowd probability reflects this structural reality: emergency suspensions tied to national security or safety concerns have not been lifted on expedited schedules in comparable cases.

Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic's leadership, statements from relevant US regulatory bodies (NIST, CFIUS, or relevant Commerce Department divisions), and any Congressional activity that might reframe the suspension's legal basis. News coverage from sources such as Reuters or Bloomberg tracking AI regulation will signal whether negotiations have begun. The settlement window's brevity means only an extraordinary reversal—a public statement from Anthropic confirming restoration, paired with confirmed US customer access—would trigger a YES resolution. Deposit and withdrawal mechanics remain unaffected by the market outcome itself.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.