Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic will make its next Claude Sonnet model publicly available before 31 July 2026, a timeline that currently carries a 94% crowd-implied probability of success. This event hinges on the company’s release cadence and the urgent need to replace deprecated models, directly influencing the funding flows that deepen this market’s book.

Historical patterns show Anthropic typically launches Sonnet variants roughly six to eight months after their predecessors, with Claude 3.5 Sonnet arriving in June 2024 and Claude 3.7 Sonnet in February 2025[1]. The deprecation of Claude Sonnet 4 and Opus 4 on 15 June 2026 creates a hard deadline for migration, forcing enterprises to adopt newer Sonnet versions to avoid API failures[4]. This operational friction mirrors past market shifts where model retirements accelerated adoption of successor variants, reinforcing the high probability of a timely Sonnet release.

Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official announcement schedule, particularly any Q3 2026 roadmap updates, and watch for early beta access signals on the Claude Platform[2]. Recent news confirms Claude Opus 4.8 launched in May 2026, suggesting a Sonnet 5.0 or 4.7 variant could follow within the next quarter to maintain product parity[3]. The settlement window’s proximity to the deprecation date means any delay would disrupt production apps, making a pre-July launch not just likely but commercially essential.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Next Claude Sonnet released by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.