Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 64,000-66,000 | 89% |
| 62,000-64,000 | 6% |
| 66,000-68,000 | 6% |
| <54,000 | 0% |
| 54,000-56,000 | 0% |
| 56,000-58,000 | 0% |
| 58,000-60,000 | 0% |
| 60,000-62,000 | 0% |
| 68,000-70,000 | 0% |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% |
| >72,000 | 0% |
Market context
Bitcoin is being traded here as a short-dated price bracket around the Binance 1-minute close at noon Eastern on 9 August, so the real-world driver is not the headline spot price alone but whether intraday flows can keep BTC inside the settlement band. Recent market data place bitcoin in the mid-$64,000s, with CoinDesk at about $64,846, Investing.com at $64,073.5, and YCharts showing $64,608.71 on 6 August, which leaves the market close to the lower-middle part of the likely outcome range rather than near an obvious breakout level.[12][6][4]
Comparable August data argue for treating the current 0% YES quote as a reflection of listing mechanics and narrow timing rather than a view that bitcoin cannot land in a tradable band. OpenBitcoin shows August 2026 has already been range-bound, with the month up 3.3% and a 7 August close of $64,878 after a high of $65,332 and a low of $62,216, while Polymarket’s own bracketed market currently clusters the most weight around $62,000–$66,000.[2][8] That kind of distribution fits a market where funding and on-ramp convenience, not just directional crypto sentiment, can decide how much depth appears at the relevant strike levels.
For traders, the key catalysts are payment and withdrawal rails that change how quickly fiat can reach the order book. Klarna, SEPA and USDC deposits each reduce friction differently, so announcements on supported rails, settlement speeds or fee schedules can matter more than broad macro headlines for short-dated depth. Separately, any weekend liquidity shift, exchange maintenance, or Binance fee change can distort the 12:00 ET candle itself, which is the exact reference point for resolution.
Methodology
This page compares Bitcoin price on August 9? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- How fast is SEPA deposit?
- SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
Trade Bitcoin price on August 9? on Polymarket Klarna UK
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