Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, with the winner announced in October 2026. The prize recognises individuals or organisations who have made the most significant contribution to peace, fraternity between nations, and the reduction of armed conflict.

Historically, the Nobel Peace Prize has frequently honoured controversial political figures, such as Henry Kissinger and Barack Obama, which helps contextualise the current 8% crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome. Past awards have also gone to joint recipients, including the International Campaign to Ban Landmines and the United Nations, suggesting that shared laureates are not uncommon. With 287 candidates nominated—208 individuals and 79 organisations—the field remains broad, and frontrunners like Donald Trump, listed at 5/1 by BetOnline.ag in late 2025, reflect how market sentiment can shift based on geopolitical developments[1].

Traders should monitor the nomination deadline of 31 January 2026, after which lobbying and public endorsements intensify. Recent reports confirm Donald Trump is among the shortlisted candidates, alongside figures such as Narges Mohammadi and Volodymyr Zelenskyy[1][10]. The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s internal meetings, typically held in February and March, will further shape the final list. As funding flows into prediction markets increase—driven by seamless deposit rails like Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC on-ramps—book depth expands, allowing more precise price discovery on these catalysts. Withdrawal efficiency via these same channels ensures traders can capitalise quickly when announcements materialise.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.