Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's release of a model officially branded as "Claude Mythos" to the general public remains unscheduled as of late 2024. The company has released Claude 3 variants (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus) and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, but has not announced a Mythos-class model or provided a public roadmap for one. The 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any official statement or timeline from Anthropic regarding such a release before the June 2026 settlement window closes.

Historical precedent suggests naming conventions matter significantly in model releases. OpenAI's GPT series followed numbered iterations with occasional architectural rebranding; Meta's Llama family adopted animal nomenclature but shifted to version numbers. Anthropic has maintained consistent naming discipline with its Claude tiers, using gemstone and musical references (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus) rather than mythological designations. A deliberate shift to "Mythos" branding would signal a substantial architectural or capability departure, similar to how GPT-4 represented a marked jump from GPT-3.5. Traders should note that model announcements typically precede public availability by weeks to months, meaning credible reporting of a Mythos project would likely surface before deployment.

Watch for Anthropic's quarterly funding announcements and earnings calls, which often coincide with product roadmap disclosures. Recent funding rounds and partnerships (including discussions around enterprise deployment) may hint at planned releases. Deposit friction on prediction markets remains material—traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers should account for settlement delays when positioning on longer-dated markets. Book depth on this contract will likely remain thin until credible development signals emerge.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.