Next Claude Opus released by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next Claude Opus model must be publicly launched before the end of 2026 to settle this market as “Yes,” with the crowd currently pricing a 95% chance of success. The last confirmed Opus release, Claude Opus 4.8, arrived on 28 May 2026 and is already accessible via API and all Claude products [2]. Historical release cadence shows Opus 4.7 launched in early 2026, followed by 4.8 just five months later, suggesting a point-bump refresh is the most probable next step rather than a full generational jump [1][4].

As of late June 2026, Anthropic has not confirmed a specific next Opus variant, though industry analysis points to a safeguarded point-bump refresh following the suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 due to US export controls [3]. Traders should monitor Anthropic’s official news channel for announcements on a restored Mythos-class release or an Opus 4.9 update, as these are the likeliest qualifying events before the settlement deadline [3]. The market’s high implied probability reflects confidence that Anthropic will prioritise a public Opus refresh over unconfirmed Sonnet 5 or Claude 5 rumours, which remain outside the roadmap [3].

This traction ties directly to funding flows: Klarna and SEPA on-ramps are driving book depth, while USDC withdrawal rails support larger positions. As deposit friction falls, more capital chases the 95% “Yes” line, reinforcing the crowd’s view that an Opus refresh is imminent. The settlement window closes 2026-12-31, leaving roughly 17 months for a qualifying launch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page compares Next Claude Opus released by 2026? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.