In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi offers the only pathway for US-based traders seeking regulatory compliance. Manifold delivers a playful, community-driven environment without financial stakes. European participants will find Polymarket accessible through PolyGram to be the optimal choice.
Prediction markets have experienced remarkable growth throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being the sole CFTC-authorised prediction market available to residents of the United States. American traders unable to access Polymarket can use Kalshi, which continues to expand its user base. Trade-offs include reduced market selection relative to Polymarket, and regulatory constraints that exclude certain market categories from operation.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform excels as a learning environment for developing forecasting skills and enables collaborative community-based prediction — though it does not suit those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem hosts more than 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of crowd-sourced probabilistic estimates from professional and amateur forecasters alike. Whilst no monetary transactions occur, the platform provides valuable opportunities for establishing a public forecasting record and specialises in geopolitical scenario analysis. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus data when studying forecasting performance.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues to process substantial transaction volumes across sports and political prediction markets. Strengths include fiat payment options, FCA authorisation, and robust liquidity in sports betting. Limitations encompass commission charges of 2-5% on net profits, absence of cryptocurrency markets, and narrower political market coverage compared to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and beyond seeking maximum trading depth and comprehensive market selection: Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the superior option. PolyGram streamlines the cryptocurrency onboarding process whilst preserving full access to Polymarket's complete market ecosystem. Start trading on PolyGram →