In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and market breadth. Kalshi stands out as the sole CFTC-regulated option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual forecasters seeking play-money engagement without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the strongest choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the sector's leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-regulated prediction market venue. It welcomes US-based traders who cannot access Polymarket and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include narrower market selection relative to Polymarket, plus regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") rather than genuine funds. This platform serves as an excellent resource for honing forecasting abilities and participating in collective prediction efforts — though it lacks appeal for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem encompasses over 10,000 user-generated prediction markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates probabilistic assessments from its network of professional forecasters. While it operates without real-money stakes, it excels as a venue for establishing forecasting credentials and tackling complex international questions. Academic institutions frequently reference its data when evaluating forecast quality.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing enormous sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include fiat-currency settlement, FCA oversight, and substantial sports market depth. Constraints encompass 2-5% commission structures applied to net profits, absence of cryptocurrency markets, and comparatively limited political market scope versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For traders across Europe and internationally seeking maximum trading depth and the broadest selection of available markets: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines cryptocurrency logistics while preserving your connection to Polymarket's complete market infrastructure. Start trading on PolyGram →