In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential election still more than two years away, prediction markets have already begun establishing prices across the Republican succession field and Democratic primary landscape, with substantial trading activity underway. Traders willing to commit capital early and hold positions stand to benefit from identifying mispriced candidates before the candidate pool contracts.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's constitutional ineligibility for a third term has opened the Republican field considerably:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Incumbent VP advantage, strong Trump backing
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Florida governor credentials, recovery from 2024 primary setback
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centre-right positioning, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Successful two-term Virginia governor, entrepreneurial track record
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Pro-worker economic messaging
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently expansive field permits surprise entrants
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Commanding lead, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence as Transportation Secretary
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California's chief executive, established national recognition
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Governor of crucial Pennsylvania battleground
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of fresh contenders
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near-parity at this early juncture)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Early 2028 markets deliver several advantages:
- Elevated volatility (heightened unknowns create scope for outsized gains on prescient positioning)
- Extended timeframe to maintain exposure whilst new information emerges
- Chance to establish stakes in candidates ahead of pivotal developments that drive valuations upward
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened susceptibility to shocks and shifts in candidate participation.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows vice presidents can secure nominations but face no guarantee of success. George H.W. Bush (1988) inherited Reagan's coalition; Al Gore (2000) fell short despite his position. Current prediction markets rank Vance as the leading contender without overwhelming dominance.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination markets settle following each party's summer convention — ordinarily July or August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Individual state contests like Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries typically see dedicated markets launch between six and twelve months beforehand — visit PolyGram's political markets hub for current offerings.